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Personal Savings Rate vs United States Oil Fund (USO)
Correlation
of % moves
-41%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → -16%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
1,253
Normalized
811
1,253
Prepared
811
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
754
A: 752 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
USO
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2728
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0104
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-psavert_stock-uso_monthly_5y