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PPI: All Commodities vs United States Oil Fund (USO)
Correlation
of % moves
+76%
In sync
of periods
79%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 79% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~57% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
79%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+76%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+62% → +85%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,363
1,253
Normalized
1,363
1,253
Prepared
1,363
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
57%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+76%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+52%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,306
A: 1304 / B: 2
Series A
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,363 raw → 1,363 prepared
Series B
USO
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.6192
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-uso_monthly_5y