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Personal Consumption vs United States Oil Fund (USO)
Correlation
of % moves
+41%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+16% → +60%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
1,254
Normalized
811
1,254
Prepared
811
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
754
A: 752 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
USO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
9.2644
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0329
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pce_stock-uso_monthly_5y