Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Real Disposable Income vs United States Oil Fund (USO)
Correlation
of % moves
-38%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USO moves ~12 months before Real Disposable Income
Watch USO for an early read on Real Disposable Income.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-58% → -13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
1,254
Normalized
811
1,254
Prepared
811
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
United States Oil Fund (USO) shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Real Disposable Income today line up with United States Oil Fund (USO) 12 months ago?"
46 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+46%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
754
A: 752 / B: 2
Series A
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
USO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-5.6054
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0225
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dspic96_stock-uso_monthly_5y