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Correlation
of values
+37%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
1,229
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,229 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,229
15,162
Normalized
1,229
15,162
Prepared
1,229
2,167
Aligned
1,229
1,229
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,229
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,229 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
938
A: 0 / B: 938
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,229 raw → 1,229 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,162 raw → 2,167 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
78.9227
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-usepuindxd_fred-walcl_weekly_5y