SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 50% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
With assets of around $700 billion, U.S. Bancorp is one of the largest regional banks in the US with its footprint in 26 states. The bank's branch network is mostly in Midwestern and Western markets. U.S. Bancorp has a comprehensive product set, with offerings in retail and commercial banking, credit cards, mortgages, payment services, trust, wealth, and capital market services.
Market cap 87.4B · 68,520 employees
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+20%) and fall (+10%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,246 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y-3M Yield Spread at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+82%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+80% → +83%
Likely range
R²
66.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.0%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,246
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,246 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
11,085
Normalized
1,255
11,085
Prepared
1,255
11,085
Aligned
1,246
1,246
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,848
A: 9 / B: 9839
Series A
U.S. Bancorp
USB
Market cap 87.4B · 68,520 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,085 raw → 11,085 prepared
Sign agreement
49.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
44
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1142
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-5.3886
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-t10y3m_stock-usb_5y
T10Y3M
10Y-3M Yield Spread
Strongest positive