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U.S. Bancorp (USB) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-49%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
259
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-58% → -39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
259 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,253
1,705
Normalized
1,253
1,705
Prepared
261
1,705
Aligned
259
259
Invalid removed
R²(i)
24%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
258
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-24%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
157 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,448
A: 2 / B: 1446
Series A
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
USB
Stock · 1,253 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,705 raw → 1,705 prepared
Sign agreement
9.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.2386
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-usb_weekly_5y