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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
15
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~1 month before Unemployment Rate
Watch USAR for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-72% → +32%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
347
941
Normalized
347
941
Prepared
17
941
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -1 to 1 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
+49%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Unemployment Rate shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Unemployment Rate 1 month from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
928
A: 2 / B: 926
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 347 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0482
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0013
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-unrate_stock-usar_monthly_5y