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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~1 month before Unemployment Rate
Watch USAR for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-81% → +17%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
939
Normalized
300
939
Prepared
15
939
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
19.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
Unemployment Rate shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Unemployment Rate 1 month from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
928
A: 2 / B: 926
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0870
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0063
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-unrate_stock-usar_monthly_5y