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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+33%
In sync
of periods
73%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
13
These move in the same direction about 73% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~1 month before Consumer Sentiment
Watch USAR for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
72.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-30% → +76%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
671
Normalized
300
671
Prepared
15
671
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
-42%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Consumer Sentiment 1 month from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
660
A: 2 / B: 658
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0797
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0091
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-usar_monthly_5y