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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
17
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~6 months before Total Consumer Credit
Watch USAR for an early read on Total Consumer Credit.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-73% → +16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
17 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
378
1,003
Normalized
378
1,003
Prepared
19
1,003
Aligned
17
17
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
16
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+29% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 6 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-41%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-4%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
988
A: 2 / B: 986
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 378 raw → 19 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,003 raw → 1,003 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0020
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0021
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-usar_monthly_5y