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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-23%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
14
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Total Consumer Credit moves ~2 months before USAR
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on USAR.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
331
1,000
Normalized
331
1,000
Prepared
17
1,000
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
-45%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 2 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
-45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+7%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
989
A: 3 / B: 986
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 331 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0013
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0020
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-usar_monthly_5y