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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Total Vehicle Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
16
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~3 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch USAR for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
16 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
331
606
Normalized
331
606
Prepared
17
606
Aligned
16
16
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-64%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 3 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
591
A: 1 / B: 590
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 331 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 606 raw → 606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0672
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0018
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-totalsa_stock-usar_monthly_5y