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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Total Vehicle Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
13
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-76% → +29%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
603
Normalized
300
603
Prepared
15
603
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
592
A: 2 / B: 590
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0611
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-totalsa_stock-usar_monthly_5y