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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+27%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
15
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
331
708
Normalized
331
708
Prepared
17
708
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-86%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
695
A: 2 / B: 693
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 331 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8369
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0554
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-usar_monthly_5y