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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
14
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-39% → +68%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
313
707
Normalized
313
707
Prepared
16
707
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
695
A: 2 / B: 693
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 313 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3265
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0196
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-usar_monthly_5y