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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+24%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
15
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~2 months before 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Watch USAR for an early read on 10-Year Real Interest Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
71.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-33% → +69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
533
Normalized
300
533
Prepared
15
533
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
-65%
+41% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 2 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
518
A: 0 / B: 518
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0854
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0144
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-usar_monthly_5y