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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs PPI: All Commodities
Correlation
of % moves
-19%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
14
These move opposite each other about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
PPI: All Commodities moves ~3 months before USAR
Watch PPI: All Commodities for an early read on USAR.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-67% → +40%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
1,360
Normalized
300
1,360
Prepared
15
1,360
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
+26%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with PPI: All Commodities 3 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,347
A: 1 / B: 1346
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0077
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0075
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-usar_monthly_5y