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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Core PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
13
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~1 month before Core PCE Price Index
Watch USAR for an early read on Core PCE Price Index.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-32% → +75%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
807
Normalized
300
807
Prepared
15
807
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
-37%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Core PCE Price Index shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Core PCE Price Index 1 month from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+36%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
796
A: 2 / B: 794
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0009
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0026
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcepilfe_stock-usar_monthly_5y