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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
18
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~3 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch USAR for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-65% → +27%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
379
1,052
Normalized
379
1,052
Prepared
19
1,052
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
17
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
+69%
+44% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 3 months from now?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
+69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,035
A: 1 / B: 1034
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 379 raw → 19 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,052 raw → 1,052 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-usar_monthly_5y