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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs M1 Money Supply
Correlation
of % moves
+35%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
17
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~4 months before M1 Money Supply
Watch USAR for an early read on M1 Money Supply.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-18% → +72%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
17 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
376
811
Normalized
376
811
Prepared
19
811
Aligned
17
17
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
16
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+68%
+33% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with M1 Money Supply 4 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+22%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
796
A: 2 / B: 794
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 376 raw → 19 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0034
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0042
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-m1sl_stock-usar_monthly_5y