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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Housing Starts
Correlation
of % moves
-22%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
17
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~5 months before Housing Starts
Watch USAR for an early read on Housing Starts.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-64% → +31%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
17 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
376
811
Normalized
376
811
Prepared
19
811
Aligned
17
17
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
16
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+58%
+37% stronger than no-shift baseline
Housing Starts shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Housing Starts 5 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
796
A: 2 / B: 794
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 376 raw → 19 prepared
Series B
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0767
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0031
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-houst_stock-usar_monthly_5y