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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Housing Starts
Correlation
of % moves
-33%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
14
These move opposite each other about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
30.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-75% → +27%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
808
Normalized
300
808
Prepared
15
808
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
795
A: 1 / B: 794
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0759
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0100
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-houst_stock-usar_monthly_5y