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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+25%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
16
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~3 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch USAR for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
16 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
331
864
Normalized
331
864
Prepared
17
864
Aligned
16
16
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-40%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 3 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-80%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
849
A: 1 / B: 848
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 331 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0177
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0127
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-usar_monthly_5y