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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
14
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~3 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch USAR for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-34% → +71%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
862
Normalized
300
862
Prepared
15
862
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-38%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 3 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-88%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
849
A: 1 / B: 848
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0187
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0142
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-usar_monthly_5y