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Correlation
of % moves
-21%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USAR moves ~2 months before US CPI
Watch USAR for an early read on US CPI.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-70% → +41%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
300
951
Normalized
300
951
Prepared
15
951
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+54%
+32% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with US CPI 2 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
940
A: 2 / B: 938
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 15 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0033
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-usar_monthly_5y