Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Continued Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+19%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-25
67
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~6 weeks before USAR
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on USAR.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+19%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
67 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
331
3,103
Normalized
331
3,103
Prepared
70
3,103
Aligned
67
67
Invalid removed
4%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
66
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-6 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-33%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 6 weeks later. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 6 weeks ago?"
60 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 weeks
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,039
A: 3 / B: 3036
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 331 raw → 70 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,103 raw → 3,103 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0132
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_stock-usar_weekly_5y