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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Continued Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+20%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
61
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~6 weeks before USAR
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on USAR.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-6% → +43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
61 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
300
3,097
Normalized
300
3,097
Prepared
63
3,097
Aligned
61
61
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
61
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-6 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-29%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 6 weeks later. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 6 weeks ago?"
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 weeks
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
31 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,038
A: 2 / B: 3036
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 300 raw → 63 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,097 raw → 3,097 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0141
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ccsa_stock-usar_weekly_5y