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USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-53%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
18
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~7 months before USAR
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on USAR.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-53%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-81% → -7%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
378
1,292
Normalized
378
1,292
Prepared
19
1,292
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
28%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
17
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-7 months
Correlation at this shift
-65%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 7 months later. Reads: "Does USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 7 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 months
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,275
A: 1 / B: 1274
Series A
USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR)
USAR
Stock · 378 raw → 19 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0429
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0076
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-usar_monthly_5y