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Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) vs Existing Home Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+68%
In sync
of periods
91%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move in the same direction about 91% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~46% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Existing Home Sales moves ~1 month before UNP
Watch Existing Home Sales for an early read on UNP.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
90.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+68%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+17% → +90%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
13
Normalized
1,254
13
Prepared
60
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
46.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
-88%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) today line up with Existing Home Sales 1 month ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
-88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
47
A: 47 / B: 0
Series A
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)
UNP
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4123
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_stock-unp_monthly_5y