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Uniswap (UNI) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
UNI moves ~7 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch UNI for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-63% → +16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
796
Normalized
729
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-74%
+46% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does Uniswap (UNI) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 7 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 2 / B: 773
Series A
Uniswap (UNI)
UNI
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3606
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0672
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-uni_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y