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Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock (ULTA) vs iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)
Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-11
1,255
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-41% → -32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,255 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,255
Normalized
1,255
1,255
Prepared
1,255
1,255
Aligned
1,255
1,255
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,255
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,254 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-39%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
82 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock (ULTA)
ULTA
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)
VXX
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7074
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0022
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: stock-ulta_stock-vxx_daily_5y