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Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock (ULTA) vs NASDAQ Composite
Correlation
of % moves
+42%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-08
1,252
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+37% → +47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,252 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
13,952
Normalized
1,255
13,952
Prepared
1,255
13,952
Aligned
1,252
1,252
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,252
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+42%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,251 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+37%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+19%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
45 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,703
A: 3 / B: 12700
Series A
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock (ULTA)
ULTA
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,952 raw → 13,952 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2757
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_stock-ulta_daily_5y