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Correlation
of % moves
+47%
In sync
of periods
68%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
1,253
These move in the same direction about 68% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+43% → +51%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,253 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
2,514
Normalized
1,254
2,514
Prepared
1,254
2,514
Aligned
1,253
1,253
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,253
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,252 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
109 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
80 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
60 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,262
A: 1 / B: 1261
Series A
Twilio Inc. (TWLO)
TWLO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1339
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sp500_stock-twlo_daily_5y