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Twilio Inc. (TWLO) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-33%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
59
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-55% → -8%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
800
Normalized
1,254
800
Prepared
61
800
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-41%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
42 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
743
A: 2 / B: 741
Series A
Twilio Inc. (TWLO)
TWLO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 800 raw → 800 prepared
Sign agreement
75.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1445
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-twlo_monthly_5y