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Twilio Inc. (TWLO) vs Velocity of M2 Money Stock
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move opposite each other about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
TWLO moves ~4 months before Velocity of M2 Money Stock
Watch TWLO for an early read on Velocity of M2 Money Stock.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-73% → +9%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
269
Normalized
1,254
269
Prepared
61
269
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
-67%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
Velocity of M2 Money Stock shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Twilio Inc. (TWLO) today line up with Velocity of M2 Money Stock 4 months from now?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-62%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-18%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
292
A: 42 / B: 250
Series A
Twilio Inc. (TWLO)
TWLO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0149
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0104
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-m2v_stock-twlo_monthly_5y