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Correlation
of % moves
-42%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US GDP moves ~3 months before TWLO
Watch US GDP for an early read on TWLO.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-74% → +6%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
317
Normalized
1,254
317
Prepared
61
317
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
17.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
-56%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
US GDP shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Twilio Inc. (TWLO) today line up with US GDP 3 months ago?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
340
A: 42 / B: 298
Series A
Twilio Inc. (TWLO)
TWLO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US GDP
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0090
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0152
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdp_stock-twlo_monthly_5y