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Twilio Inc. (TWLO) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-43%
In sync
of periods
24%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
60
These move in the same direction about 24% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
24%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-62% → -20%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
866
Normalized
1,253
866
Prepared
61
866
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-48%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
807
A: 1 / B: 806
Series A
Twilio Inc. (TWLO)
TWLO
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 866 raw → 866 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5938
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0607
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-twlo_monthly_5y