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Twilio Inc. (TWLO) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-41%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
864
Normalized
1,254
864
Prepared
61
864
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-48%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
50 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
805
A: 1 / B: 804
Series A
Twilio Inc. (TWLO)
TWLO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5742
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0546
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-twlo_monthly_5y