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Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) vs M1 Money Supply
Correlation
of % moves
+34%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
58
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
TSN moves ~6 months before M1 Money Supply
Watch TSN for an early read on M1 Money Supply.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+8% → +55%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
807
Normalized
1,254
807
Prepared
60
807
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) today line up with M1 Money Supply 6 months from now?"
51 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+55%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
26 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
751
A: 2 / B: 749
Series A
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)
TSN
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0418
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-m1sl_stock-tsn_monthly_5y