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TRON (TRX) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+2%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~5 months before TRX
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on TRX.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+2%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-42% → +45%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
796
Normalized
729
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
0.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+43%
+41% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does TRON (TRX) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 5 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+2%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 2 / B: 773
Series A
TRON (TRX)
TRX
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0452
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0822
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-trx_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y