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TRON (TRX) vs 15Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-7%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
104
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~5 weeks before TRX
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on TRX.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-26% → +13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
104 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
729
1,813
Normalized
729
1,813
Prepared
105
1,813
Aligned
104
104
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
104
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-5 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+28%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 5 weeks later. Reads: "Does TRON (TRX) today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 5 weeks ago?"
98 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 weeks
+28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-2%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
59 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,710
A: 1 / B: 1709
Series A
TRON (TRX)
TRX
Crypto · 729 raw → 105 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,813 raw → 1,813 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0176
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-trx_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y