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TRON (TRX) vs Initial Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+13%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
103
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
TRX moves ~11 weeks before Initial Jobless Claims
Watch TRX for an early read on Initial Jobless Claims.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+13%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-6% → +32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
103 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
729
3,112
Normalized
729
3,112
Prepared
106
3,112
Aligned
103
103
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
102
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+11 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+26%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 11 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does TRON (TRX) today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 11 weeks from now?"
91 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 weeks
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+20%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
54 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,012
A: 3 / B: 3009
Series A
TRON (TRX)
TRX
Crypto · 729 raw → 106 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 3,112 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1018
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-trx_fred-icsa_weekly_5y