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The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) vs Existing Home Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+44%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Existing Home Sales moves ~1 month before TRV
Watch Existing Home Sales for an early read on TRV.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-18% → +81%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
13
Normalized
1,254
13
Prepared
60
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
19.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
-52%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) today line up with Existing Home Sales 1 month ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
-52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
47
A: 47 / B: 0
Series A
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)
TRV
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3427
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0048
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_stock-trv_monthly_5y