SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-6%
of values
In sync
51%
of periods
History
435
weeks · through 2026-09
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~12 weeks before VIX
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on VIX.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-6%
Based on values
95% CI
-15% → +3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
435 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
9,176
807
Normalized
9,176
807
Prepared
1,896
807
Aligned
435
435
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
435
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-13%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does VIX today line up with Bank Reserves 12 weeks ago?"
423 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-6%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-13%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+60%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
73 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
104 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,833
A: 1461 / B: 372
Series A
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,176 raw → 1,896 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-10.6903
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1379.6061
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-totresns_fred-vixcls_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.