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Correlation
of values
-13%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
806
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~18 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-13%
Based on values
95% CI
-20% → -6%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
806 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
807
Normalized
939
807
Prepared
939
807
Aligned
806
806
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
806
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-27%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with Bank Reserves 18 months ago?"
788 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+86%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+48%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
136 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
134
A: 133 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-87.4979
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1157.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-totresns_fred-unrate_monthly_5y