SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+2%
of values
In sync
53%
of periods
History
386
days · through 2026-03-01
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~6 days before Bank Reserves
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on Bank Reserves.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+2%
Based on values
95% CI
-8% → +12%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
386 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
386
Normalized
807
386
Prepared
807
386
Aligned
386
386
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
0.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
386
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+8%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 6 days ago?"
380 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+2%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
+8%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+81%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+64%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
143 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
421
A: 421 / B: 0
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 386 raw → 386 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.9528
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-totresns_fred-u6rate_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.