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Correlation
of values
+39%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
496
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Consumer Credit moves ~18 months before US Economic Policy Uncertainty
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on US Economic Policy Uncertainty.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
496 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
15,162
Normalized
1,000
15,162
Prepared
1,000
499
Aligned
496
496
Invalid removed
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
496
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Economic Policy Uncertainty shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Total Consumer Credit today line up with US Economic Policy Uncertainty 18 months from now?"
478 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
507
A: 504 / B: 3
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,162 raw → 499 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
69.8391
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y