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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
499
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Consumer Credit moves ~18 months before US Economic Policy Uncertainty
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on US Economic Policy Uncertainty.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
+33% → +48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
499 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,003
15,232
Normalized
1,003
15,232
Prepared
1,003
501
Aligned
499
499
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
499
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+46%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Economic Policy Uncertainty shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Total Consumer Credit today line up with US Economic Policy Uncertainty 18 months from now?"
481 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+44%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
506
A: 504 / B: 2
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,003 raw → 1,003 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,232 raw → 501 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
67.5443
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y