SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move together about 55% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-17%) is running 1.9σ away from the long-run average of +90%.
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before TON
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on TON.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-20%) and fall (-8%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+95%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Toncoin today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
90 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+90%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+85% → +93%
Likely range
R²
80.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
55.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
102
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
102 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
703
1,220
Normalized
703
1,220
Prepared
102
1,220
Aligned
102
102
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
45 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,118
A: 0 / B: 1118
Series A
Toncoin
TON
Crypto · 703 raw → 102 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
110340.4964
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6392680.0115
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-walcl_5y