Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Toncoin (TON) vs U-6 Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-9%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
TON moves ~6 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch TON for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-9%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → +35%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
387
Normalized
701
387
Prepared
25
387
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
0.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
-57%
+47% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 6 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-9%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
-57%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-32%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
366
A: 2 / B: 364
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0201
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y