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Toncoin (TON) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
22
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Total Consumer Credit moves ~8 months before TON
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on TON.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
1,000
Normalized
701
1,000
Prepared
25
1,000
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
-54%
+25% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 8 months ago?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
-54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-67%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
981
A: 3 / B: 978
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0155
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y