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Toncoin (TON) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-20%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
100
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
TON moves ~3 weeks before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch TON for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-38% → +0%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
100 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
701
1,690
Normalized
701
1,690
Prepared
102
1,690
Aligned
100
100
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
100
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+3 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+32%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 3 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 3 weeks from now?"
92 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 weeks
+32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-28%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
59 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,592
A: 2 / B: 1590
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 102 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,690 raw → 1,690 prepared
Sign agreement
2.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3743
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0135
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y