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Toncoin (TON) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+12%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
TON moves ~5 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch TON for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+12%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-33% → +53%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
796
Normalized
701
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
1.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+47%
+35% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 5 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 2 / B: 773
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2693
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0657
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y