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Toncoin (TON) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+29%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
23
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~12 months before TON
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on TON.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-15% → +63%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
710
Normalized
701
710
Prepared
25
710
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+36% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 12 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-88%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
689
A: 2 / B: 687
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6097
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0277
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y