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Toncoin (TON) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+37%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
24
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~11 months before TON
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on TON.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-5% → +68%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
1,052
Normalized
701
1,052
Prepared
25
1,052
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
-50%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 11 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+32%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+1%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,029
A: 1 / B: 1028
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,052 raw → 1,052 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0015
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-payems_monthly_5y