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Toncoin (TON) vs Real Disposable Income
Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
TON moves ~11 months before Real Disposable Income
Watch TON for an early read on Real Disposable Income.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-23% → +58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
807
Normalized
701
807
Prepared
25
807
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
-72%
+51% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Disposable Income shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Real Disposable Income 11 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-65%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
786
A: 2 / B: 784
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0056
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0014
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-dspic96_monthly_5y