SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
Light inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Chevron is an integrated energy company with exploration, production, and refining operations worldwide. It is the second-largest oil company in the United States with 2025 worldwide net oil-equivalent production of 3.7 million barrels per day, including 8.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and 2.3 million barrels of liquids per day. Production takes place in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company's refining networks arelocated in the United States and Asia, with a total worldwide refining capacity of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day at year-end 2025. Net proved reserves at year-end 2025 stood at 10.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, consist
Market cap 368.1B · 43,039 employees
Toncoin
TON
Layer 1 · USD pair
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-76%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of -36%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+16%) and fall (+31%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
482 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Toncoin at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-36%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-44% → -28%
Likely range
R²
13.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
53.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
482
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
482 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
703
Normalized
1,255
703
Prepared
1,255
703
Aligned
482
482
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
107 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
994
A: 773 / B: 221
Series A
Chevron Corporation
CVX
Market cap 368.1B · 43,039 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Toncoin
TON
Crypto · 703 raw → 703 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0469
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
11.1520
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: crypto:ton|stock:cvx|5Y