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Toncoin (TON) vs CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Correlation
of % moves
-19%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks moves ~13 months before TON
Watch CPI: Used Cars & Trucks for an early read on TON.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-56% → +24%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
880
Normalized
701
880
Prepared
25
880
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
-65%
+46% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 13 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-29%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
857
A: 1 / B: 856
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0143
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0012
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-cusr0000seta02_monthly_5y